Friday, February 25, 2011

Max Scherzer, Wandy Rodriguez, Shaun Marcum, and Ted Lilly are Four Late Round Pitchers to Snag

Pitching is the most unpredictable position in baseball. Because of that, I almost never pick a pitcher within the first three rounds unless I feel the value is too good. The reason? There is so much talent later in the draft.


This year, I try to pick one ace around round four or five. Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers has an ADP of 43.7 and is a nice ace caliber starter to target. Next, I wait. And wait. And wait even longer.

The ninth round roles around, and four of my favorite starters who are extremely undervalued are still sitting there. These four pitchers have low average draft positions (ADP). They are great to target to fill out your rotation:

1. Max Scherzer Detroit Tigers- ADP 102.5- Scherzer has a dreadful start to the season, and was sent to the minors. When he returned to the majors, he had a 2.46 ERA in 23 starts. 

His career SO/9 is 9.0. He could strike out over 200 batters this year if he stays healthy and gets the starts. Also, expect an ERA potentially in the low threes and 15 wins.

2. Shaun Marcum Milwaukee Brewers- ADP 116.3- No one expected Marcum to bounce back this strongly from Tommy John surgery. He went 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 165 SOs in 195.1 IP. Marcum also only walked 43 batters last year. The Milwaukee Brewers signed Marcum this offseason. 

The move to the National League will only improve Marcum's strikeouts and should lower his ERA. Marcum is a nice undervalued pitcher to pick up in the tenth round of your draft. Expect a low threes ERA, 170 SOs, and 18 wins with the Milwaukee Brewer's offense.

3. Wandy Rodriguez Houston Astros- ADP 110.4- Wandy Rodriguez had a 2.11 ERA in 14 starts after the brick. He ended the season with a 3.60 ERA and an 11-12 record. This was a very good season, but his terrible first half diminished his fantasy value this year. 

I think it is more important when ranking pitchers for them to finish the season strong. Expect a low threes ERA, 190 SOs, and around 14 wins.

4. Ted Lilly Los Angeles Dodgers- ADP 122.5- Last season for the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers, Lilly compiled a 3.62 ERA and 10 wins and 166 SOs. After being traded to the Dodgers, Lilly's ERA dropped from 3.69 to 3.52. His SO/9 also increased from 6.8 to 9.0. Lilly is fly ball pitcher who will be  pitching in a pitcher's park at Dodger's Stadium.

Expect 15 wins, a 3.20 ERA, and 180 SOs from Lilly.

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